The Big Casino – What to Watch for Post Mid-Term Elections

Looking at all the publicly available data, Republicans appear poised to take control of the House and possibly the Senate, too. Assuming this shift in control for the upcoming 118th Congress, here are a few initial observations about guideposts to watch for in the coming weeks. After policymakers have had time to sift the Election Day results, we will have more to say to clients and friends in the coming weeks. But, in the meantime, please consider these thoughts.

  • Congressional Republicans will soon begin to float potential Biden Administration regulations to be targeted in early 2023 by resolutions of disapproval under the Congressional Review Act.
  • Does former President Trump soon announce his intentions for 2024? His advisors have floated Nov. 14th as a potential date. How long until President Biden does as well?
  • Both the House and Senate return to session on Nov. 14th. Much of lawmakers’ attention will be focused on non-legislative matters – preparing for the 118th Congress, leadership elections, new member orientation, end-of-year housekeeping items. But the Senate is expected to spend much of the week focused on confirming nominations, although the defense authorization bill is on the floor and the amendment process could begin in earnest. The House schedule has not been announced yet.
  • When does Sen. Sasse leave office, and long does it take for his replacement to be seated? For the next few weeks, the Senate remains 50/50 and every vote remains crucial.
  • How will the January 6th Select Committee wrap up its business? Will it hold any concluding hearings and/or send around a final spate of subpoenas? When will it issue a final report?
  • Several sitting senators (Sen. Cassidy and Sen. Braun) have been rumored to be looking at running for Governor. Do they make announcements anytime soon?
  • The first polls close tomorrow at 7 pm in Kentucky (6 pm in the eastern half of the Commonwealth), Indiana, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia. We will get early signs about turnout from KY06 (look at the margin of Rep. Barr’s win), IN01 (Mrvan), VA02 (Luria) and VA07 (Spanberger).
  • How long does it take Alaska and Maine to count votes and then to complete the ranked choice voting process? For far-flung Alaska, this could take several weeks.
  • Coming announcements by Hill GOP of “re-opening” of the U.S. Capitol complex and rolling back of Covid Era access restrictions. How will they deal with the staffing shortage of Capitol Hill police? Will visitors be funneled through the Congressional Visitors Center?
  • Heavier Rush Hour Traffic – The coming wave of GOP oversight of federal agencies will likely lead managers to bring employees back to the office on a more frequent basis leading to more commuters and more traffic snarls.

Worth a Read

The White House recently released visitors logs for July.

Why it sometimes takes a while to count all the votes.

Here’s an explanation of why the AP calls elections.

On the day before the elections, here are the totals on how many votes have already been cast.


Week of Nov. 13 House new Member orientation, Week One.

Week of Nov. 14 Senate GOP hold leadership elections.

Nov. 14 House GOP leadership candidate forum.

Nov. 15-16 House Republicans hold leadership elections.

Nov. 20 President Biden turns 80 years old.

Wee of Nov.29 House new Member orientation, Week Two

Dec. 6 Potential Georgia Senate runoff.

Dec. 10 Potential Louisiana runoff.

Dec. 16 Current continuing resolution expires.

Jan. 3 118th Congress convenes.

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